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Q1 GDP comes out Wednesday. Cores PCE comes out Thursday. Earnings season is already underway. Most macro coverage will read the wrong things into the wrong numbers. Here's the cheat sheet: what to watch, what to skip, and what the dispersion is going to mean.
The April minutes have already been read seven different ways by Wall Street. Most are wrong. The shift is procedural, not directional — and that's a much bigger deal than people are giving it credit for.
Three sectors just printed a level of inventory build that historically precedes recession by about 9 months. Two of them have plausible cover stories. The third does not. Here's what the data actually says.
Every advisor in your group chat is still telling you 60/40. Here is the math, with three sensitivity tables, for why the next 18 months are likely to reward the un-fashionable allocation.
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