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★ All Free only Paid Macro Markets Fed Earnings
2026★ 16 issues so far
141VOL 5

The three numbers that matter for Q2 — and the four everyone is going to misread.

Q1 GDP comes out Wednesday. Cores PCE comes out Thursday. Earnings season is underway. Here's the cheat sheet.

★ APR 18 · MACRO · ★★★★★ · 412 COMMENTS
★ FREE
— 9 min
140VOL 5

Why the Fed's quiet pivot doesn't say what everyone thinks it says.

The April minutes have been read seven different ways by Wall Street. Most are wrong. The shift is procedural, not directional.

★ APR 11 · FED · ★★★★★ · 287 COMMENTS
— 8 min
139VOL 5

Inventory turnover is screaming, and nobody is listening.

Three sectors just printed inventory builds that historically precede recession by ~9 months. Two have plausible covers. One does not.

★ APR 4 · MACRO · ★★★★☆ · 412 COMMENTS
★ FREE
— 7 min
138VOL 5

The case for a 70/30 split, against the consensus.

Every advisor is still saying 60/40. Here is the math, with three sensitivity tables, for why the next 18 months are likely to reward the unfashionable allocation.

★ MAR 28 · MARKETS · ★★★★★ · 184 COMMENTS
— 9 min
137VOL 5

Earnings preview · Q1 · the lines I'll be watching.

This week begins the longest earnings season the market has run into in two years. Here are the specific lines on specific names that will matter.

★ MAR 21 · EARNINGS · ★★★★★ · 96 COMMENTS
— 11 min
136VOL 5

The dollar's quiet drift, finally explained.

DXY has been fading for three months in a way that nobody has explained convincingly. The simplest story is the one most people are dismissing.

★ MAR 14 · MACRO · FX · ★★★★☆ · 148 COMMENTS
★ FREE
— 6 min
135VOL 5

What "soft landing" was always going to mean.

Five years from now, the term "soft landing" will have one definition. Here is the definition. Here is the data that supports it. Here is the data that doesn't.

★ MAR 7 · MACRO · ★★★★★ · 318 COMMENTS
— 8 min
2025★ 52 issues
128

The 2025 wrap-up · what got it right, what got it wrong.

Year-end retrospective: of the calls I made in '25, which were honest, which were lucky, and which were embarrassingly wrong.

★ DEC 27 · YEAR-END · ★★★★★ · 284 COMMENTS
★ FREE
— 14 min
127

The Q4 GDP misreading we're about to walk into.

Two-thirds of Wall Street has Q4 modeled wrong. The error is small, but the cascade is large. Here is the exact reasoning.

★ DEC 20 · MACRO · ★★★★★ · 198 COMMENTS
— 9 min
126

Holiday retail · the inventory unwind we've all been waiting for.

Black Friday data came in. The pattern is more dispersed than the consensus take suggests. Three names benefit, four are about to disappoint.

★ DEC 13 · RETAIL · ★★★★☆ · 104 COMMENTS
★ FREE
— 7 min

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