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Q1 GDP comes out Wednesday. Cores PCE comes out Thursday. Earnings season is underway. Here's the cheat sheet.
The April minutes have been read seven different ways by Wall Street. Most are wrong. The shift is procedural, not directional.
Three sectors just printed inventory builds that historically precede recession by ~9 months. Two have plausible covers. One does not.
Every advisor is still saying 60/40. Here is the math, with three sensitivity tables, for why the next 18 months are likely to reward the unfashionable allocation.
This week begins the longest earnings season the market has run into in two years. Here are the specific lines on specific names that will matter.
DXY has been fading for three months in a way that nobody has explained convincingly. The simplest story is the one most people are dismissing.
Five years from now, the term "soft landing" will have one definition. Here is the definition. Here is the data that supports it. Here is the data that doesn't.
Year-end retrospective: of the calls I made in '25, which were honest, which were lucky, and which were embarrassingly wrong.
Two-thirds of Wall Street has Q4 modeled wrong. The error is small, but the cascade is large. Here is the exact reasoning.
Black Friday data came in. The pattern is more dispersed than the consensus take suggests. Three names benefit, four are about to disappoint.